May 19, 2024

Earlier this season, the Pac-12 looked like a conference sure to land a team — or multiple teams — in the College Football Playoff. Times have changed. The Allstate Playoff Predictor now has pegged the Big Ten as the conference most likely to have a team in the last four.

Not only that, but the predictor also isn’t sold on Georgia repeating as national champions. The Bulldogs, who lost their tight end and leading receiver Brock Bowers to injury, have a tough slate the rest of the way, including Saturday’s game against Florida.

Down on Georgia

The Allstate Playoff Predictor has a much more pessimistic view of Georgia’s chances to reach the playoff than most might expect.

The model gives Georgia a 31% chance to reach the playoff and just a 7% chance to repeat as national champions.

Why so low? A few reasons, but the biggest is the FPI doesn’t think Georgia is anything special compared to the rest of the top teams. Georgia ranks just eighth in FPI (rating: +22.5), in a virtual tie with Texas.

Georgia’s efficiency, which includes adjustments for opponent quality and garbage time, ranks only 12th this season.

Though 7-0, Georgia has the seventh most difficult schedule remaining. It has tough contests against Ole Miss (13th in FPI) at home and at Tennessee (16th) coming up, plus a potential matchup, likely against Alabama or LSU, in the SEC championship game.

Buckeyes the best

Ohio State now ranks No. 1 in Strength of Record after defeating Penn State. An average CFP contender would have had just a 10% chance to go 7-0 against the Buckeyes’ schedule, as Ohio State did. Florida State is closely behind at 11%.

The Big Ten now has the three best teams in college football, per FPI. Ohio State (+27.9 rating), Michigan (26.7) and Penn State (24.8) are the three top-rated teams. Oklahoma (24.7) is the highest-rated non-Big Ten team.

Count on the Big Ten

The Big Ten is the most likely conference to put at least one team in the playoff (98%) and to put multiple teams in the playoff (38%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. No other conference has a double-digit chance of putting multiple teams in the playoff.

After the hot start early in the season, the Pac-12’s chances to put a team in the playoff are now down to 39%.

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